The Futures of Identity in Myanmar: A Participatory Futures Project

Author: Hlwan Paing Thiha

Advisor: Ora-orn Poocharoen

 

Introduction

Identity in Myanmar

The long list of problems in Myanmar has strong roots in identity issues among various social groups that dwell in the country. The strong sense of belongingness for a social group empowered division, bias, and discrimination among identities, which created a breeding ground for identity-based problems in Myanmar. The civil war in Myanmar, regarded as the world’s longest ongoing civil war, is powered by division and distrust among ethnic identities and is now well into its late seventies (International Crisis Group, 2020). The governments both before and after independence used ethnic identities as a tool to divide and govern the people. Moreover, prejudice and stereotypes among religious identities are used as a justification for oppression against certain people.

At the micro-level, identity also plays a vital role in a person’s daily life in Myanmar. It dictates how a person can enjoy their basic rights. The systematic favouritism of governments of various times allowed some identities to enjoy privileges while restricting the rights of others. In extreme cases, some basic rights of a person, such as the right to marriage and relocation, are restricted based on the identity of a person, as in the Rohingya of Rakhine State (Anwary, 2018). The stereotypes and prejudices that run through society also create discrimination and barriers for a person’s daily life in Myanmar.

Ethnic Identities and Civil War

Ethnicity is one of the most, if not the most prominent identities in Myanmar. Being a member of some major ethnicities grants a person privileges, whereas being a member of some ethnicities creates difficulties. The systemic discrimination of the government is strongly based on ethnic identities.

The involvement of ethnic identity in the world’s longest ongoing civil war of Myanmar started in 1948 when the Karen National Union (KNU) decided to revolt due to neglect of the Karen’s self-determination in the 1947 constitution (Smith, 1991).  This civil war was joined by other ethnicities on realising the majority Bamar-led central government was not considering their self-determination. The prolonged civil war created a space for the military in the political sphere, portraying them as the defender and savior of the union. Therefore, the military used ethnic identity as a tool to prolong the civil war to ensure their existence in politics. The military and military-backed governments of Myanmar created divisions based on ethnic identity by privileging the majority Bamar people and oppressing other ethnicities. This process of creating Bamar ethnic supremacy is called “burmanisation”.

Burmanisation and Ethnic Supremacism

The growth in significance of the majority Bamar ethnic identity was initiated by nationalist movements during the colonial era (Thuzar & Cheong, 2019). Alongside the British colonisers, the mass immigration of South Asians flowing into the country concerned the native Burmese people. Marginalisation of Burmese people in government, workplaces, and social places led to the rise of nationalist movements. Buddhism was also perceived as being challenged by the rapidly growing number of Hindus and Muslims (Thuzar & Cheong, 2019). The rise of Burmese nationalism was appraised for independence movements during the colonial period.

The strong nationalism of the Bamar people turned against other minority ethnic groups after gaining independence. Central governments of different ages tried to create a national identity centred around the history, culture, tradition, and religion of the central Bamar people. This process, called burmanisation, has been the focal point in identity politics in Myanmar since independence (South & Lall, 2018).

Religions, Extremism, and Genocide

Along with ethnicity, religion is one of the prominent identities in Myanmar. People in Myanmar feel a strong sense of belonging to their religion. The extremist beliefs are well spread among all major religions, empowering hatred and division based on religious identity. Therefore, deadly conflicts and riots based on religious identities are not rare. A riot between Muslims and Buddhists in Meiktila, a major town in central Myanmar, in 2016 resulted in at least 32 deaths (Jessica, 2016).

The military and governments also used religious identity to justify their oppressions against minority identities. The military used the preexisting prejudice and stereotypes in the society against Muslim people to justify their actions in the Rohingya genocide. Due to these justifications, the majority Buddhist population neglected or even supported the actions of the military against the Rohingya people in the early days (Barany, 2019).

Coup d’Etat and Political Identity

The military coup of 2021 created another strong identity to divide the people of Myanmar. The people are once more divided based on their political affiliation, creating hatred, discrimination, and violence (International Crisis Group, 2021). The civil war, discrimination, and violence from the junta government widened the division of political identities even more. The systemic discrimination by the junta government is evident in blocking aid to areas controlled by pro-democracy forces after the major earthquake in Mandalay in March 2025 (Guzman & Jeyaretnam, 2025).

Problem Statement

The division and distrust among the identities caused various problems in the political and social spheres of Myanmar, both in the past and the present. The key to long-lasting peace and harmony in the society in Myanmar lies in creating unity and harmony among the identities. Understanding the future images of identity in the people of Myanmar can lead to finding solutions to the wicked problem of identity in Myanmar.

Although a lot of research and studies stated identity issues as the root of various problems in Myanmar (Thuzar & Cheong, 2019, International Crisis Group, 2020, Waller, 2020, Khant, 2024), no study has used futures foresight tools to anlyse people’s visions and perceptions on identity in Myanmar. In this study, futures foresight tools, futures triangle, and participatory futures activity were used to analyse the futures of identity in Myanmar.

Conceptual Framework

Identity

Social Identity Theory (Tajfel, 1972) described identity as “the individual’s knowledge that he belongs to certain social groups together with some emotional and value significance to him of this group membership” (Tajfel, 1972). This concept of identity emphasises one’s belongingness to a group as a member, highlighting the intergroup discrimination, where the member of a social group favours other members of the same group (Tajfel, 1970). It introduces the notions of ingroup (us) and outgroup (them) (Worley,2021). This theory also addresses interactions between social groups, such as prejudice, stereotypes, conflicts, discrimination, and so on. This approach to identity is used in analysing the futures of identity in Myanmar.

Research Methodology

Data Collection and Demographic

Data collection for this study was done in a participatory workshop style. The workshop was held on the 3^rd of May at the School of Public Policy in Chiang Mai University. 27 Myanmar citizens with various ethnic, religious, and professional backgrounds originating from different parts of Myanmar who are currently living in Chiang Mai were gathered to work on a foresight workshop regarding the futures of identity in Myanmar. The participants of the workshops were chosen to have different perspectives and experiences regarding their identity in society. They were chosen from the researcher’s connections and their connections.

Among the participants, 48% are from the Bamar ethnic origin, 19% are from the Karen ethnic origin, and 11% are from the Rakhine ethnic origin. The rest of the participants include people with other ethnic identities of Shan, Kachin, Mon, Chinese, and India. 11% of the participants identified themselves as mixed ethnic identity. The majority of the participants identify themselves as follower of Buddhism. 21% of the participants are Christians, 13% of them identify themselves as not relating to any religion, and 4% of the participants are Muslim. As for gender, the workshop had 70% female participation.

A series of activities and questions were conducted to examine the participants’ insight into the situations of identity in Myanmar and their vision for the futures. There were two phases of the workshop. The first phase contains a series of questions to develop a preferred future and a futures triangle. The second phase is a participatory futures activity where participants develop identity cards from the futures based on the scenarios obtained by the futures triangle.

Preferred Future and Futures Triangle

The futures are often visualized in a cone of possibilities. This cone is usually packed into layers of possibilities, possible, plausible, probable, preferable, and so on (Voros, 2017). Preferred futures or preferable futures are the futures that we think should happen. Using this cone perspective of futures, the preferred future of the participants was analysed.

The futures triangle was introduced by Sohail Inayatullah as a framework that maps futures as an open-ended map (Inayatullah, 2003). In this framework, futures are seen as contested and influenced by several factors. As a triangle, the futures are shaped by 3 distinct forces: pull of the future, push of the present, and weight of the past. The futures triangle provides a frame to explore the futures using these forces (Abdullah, 2023). The participants of the workshop identified the forces of the triangle to understand what affects the futures of identity in Myanmar.

Participatory Futures

The second phase of the workshop includes a participatory futures activity. In this activity, participants imagined themselves in scenarios of the futures developed based on the futures triangle. They built the scenarios based on the degree of change (minimal, marginal, progressive, and radical) and crafted a story and an item from the futures. The item and story explained how the identity card in the futures will be according to the scenario.

Findings and Analysis

Preferred Future

The participants of the workshop worked together to bring out their preferred future. The participants’ preferred future can be organised into six main characteristics. The comparison of each of the characteristics and their respective current situation is as follows.

 

1. Unity, Tolerance, and Harmony

Present	Future
A strong sense of social belongingness creates ingroup-outgroup bias and intergroup discrimination.   Hatred among the different social groups outweighs the social unity. Lack of strong social bonding results in division and confusion among identities.   The political discord is too focused on identity issues, derailing from real problem-solving.	An educated society with high respect for ethics that can tolerate differences.   Social belongingness is focused on creating and maintaining harmony within society.   Keeping the sense of identity and social bonding, such as ethnicity, religion, and political philosophies, strong while focusing on unity and acceptance of differences.

2. State-Sponsored Equality

The state’s preference and favouritism for the majority Bamar ethnic and other major ethnicities results in systemic discrimination against small ethnicities.   State-sponsored ethnic supremacism of major ethnicities creates privileges entitled to members of major ethnicities.   Recognising only the Burmese language as the official language creates unnecessary language barriers in other ethnics’ majority areas in accessing government services.

The state ensures equality among ethnicities with a strong national identity alongside with sense of ethnic origins.   Ethnic states are united in a true federalist union which guarantees self-determination and self-authorisation.   More languages can be used in government official procedures.

3. Religions Focusing on Their True Essence

The government favours Buddhism over other religions, regarding Buddhism as the de facto state religion.   Radical beliefs and understanding of religions are widespread among the public, resulting in religious extremism.

The state is secular with a distinct division between state and religion.   People have an educated understanding of the essence of religions. The society regards religions as a source of love and peace.

4. Identities as Fluid

All identities are treated as lifelong, permanent characteristics of an individual.

The socio-political condition allows some identities, such as religion and gender, to change easily.

5. No Division Based on Political Identity

Civil war and political turmoil create a strong division based on people’s political affiliation.   The hatred of a person with a different political identity is too great.

Political ideologies no longer create division among the people.   The differences in political beliefs are tolerated, and conflicts are solved in a civil manner.

6. Equality among Genders

Religious teaching and traditions value men over women. Patriarchal teachings are widely accepted in society.   The government accepts only binary genders.

Gender equality is taught in schools and households, promoting equality among genders.   Non-binary genders are also accepted by the government.

Future Triangle

The participants identified the forces of the triangle to build a futures triangle for the futures of identity in Myanmar.

Pulls of the future

The images of desired futures pull forward (Inayatullah, 2018). The identities in Myanmar are pulled by the futures’ visions of them. These pulls of the future are the forces that draw the changes toward the preferred future. The participants identified the pulls of the future as follows.

1. A Peaceful, Developed, and Prosperous Federalist Country

The participants envision a peaceful, developed, and prosperous country. They hope that the country can become a true federalist union where states have autonomy and self-determination. In this image of the future, freedom and democracy are secured for each and every one residing within the country.

2. A Strong National Identity

Creating a strong national identity has never succeeded in Myanmar. The past attempts used national identity as a tool for assimilation. The vision of a strong national identity while keeping the sense of ethnic origins can create trust, tolerance, and unity. In this vision, everyone is regarded as a part of the nation, and no one is discriminated against for their ethnicity. This future can pull towards a peaceful and harmonious society where equality and social justice prevail.

3. True and Pure Beliefs on Religions

Religions play a big part in the society of Myanmar in the present. It is not possible to exclude religions from the social balance in the futures of Myanmar. The participants hope that religions focus on true and pure beliefs rather than focusing on extremist ideas. In this image of the future, religions can be the tool for social coherence, promoting love and peace.

4. More Inclusive Leadership

Women and non-binary people are often neglected from leadership roles in both social and professional positions in Myanmar. In this vision for the future, religious beliefs and traditions no longer create disadvantages for women and non-binary people competing with men for leadership positions. The inclusivity of leadership extends even further beyond gender to ethnicity, religion, and social class.

5. Brain Gain

The participants of the workshop wished for a standard quality education system that could educate the younger generations about ethics and tolerance of differences. This education system can be a key to an equal and harmonious society. In this image of the future, the current situation of ‘Brain Drain’ is transformed into ‘Brain Gain’ through this education system.

Push of the present

Alongside the pull from the images of the futures, there are pushes of the present. These can often be observed in the systems of the present driving toward desired, plausible, or possible futures. Myanmar is currently experiencing big waves of changes that create strong pushes of the present toward a preferred future.

1. Military Coup and Civil War

The military coup of 2021 and the current armed conflicts are the strongest pushes of the present. The images and firsthand experience of war and violence create a strong willingness for long-lasting peace in people’s minds. Moreover, military coup and junta government make state-sponsored discrimination more visible and make people realise the inequality of the current situation. The civil war and revolution resulted in instability in the political system and allowed pockets of change to happen.

2. Willingness of Independence and Self-determination

The willingness for independence and self-determination of ethnic states is strong in the present. Ethnic Revolution Organisations are gaining control of territories with self-administration. Moreover, the spread of federalist ideology among the people leads to the decentralization of power. These forces can push to rebuild the union with a new approach.

3. Strong Willingness to Change

Instabilities in the system and current inconveniences create a strong desire for change in people’s minds. People are also experiencing a strong, emotion-driven force pushing for change. Thus, they are more willing to listen to others’ opinions and adjust theirs. This strong motion for change creates spaces for youths to be active and push their new visions forward. This strong willingness to change may even allow for redefining identities.

4. Rise of Scepticism of Religions and Traditions

The extremist religious beliefs are becoming unpopular among the people. People are trying to connect to the real essence of religions. Moreover, unjust traditional beliefs about age and gender roles are also questioned. This rise of scepticism on religions and traditions can push toward changes in society and the gender landscape.

Weight of the past

In addition to pushes and pulls, there are also weights. The weights of the past should also be considered while looking toward futures. They include the weights that keep us from advancing towards the future and the values from the past that we want to carry into the future.

1. Hatred and Doubt among Ethnicities

Distrust in society is present due to the decades of oppression by the majority ethnicities. These oppressions create hatred among ethnicities. Moreover, several political agreements in various attempts at reconciliation were breached by various parties in history. This also results in doubt and a lack of unity in society.

2. Inadequate Education

Education was used as a major source of stereotypes and discrimination. The education system is focused on major Bamar people promoting their language and achievements. The root of Burmanisation ideologies in the society can be traced back to the primary education received in schools.

3. The History of Separate and Sovereign Kingdoms

For most of its history, Myanmar has been divided into several kingdoms with sovereignty. This knowledge of history makes ethnicities desire self-determination and create values from the past that they want to carry into their future.

4. Patriarchy in the Teaching of Religions

The traditions, culture, and teachings of religions promoted patriarchy in Myanmar for a long time. These teachings can create barriers to achieving gender equality in Myanmar.

 

Scenarios and Identity Cards from the Futures

The participants were asked to build scenarios for 2050 with different degrees of change based on the futures triangle. Then the participants imagine themselves in those scenarios and craft an identity card from the future.

Minimal Change or No Change

In this future, ethnicity and religion remain the most significant parts of a citizen. The privilege of the majority persists with a heavily centralised rule. National identity, Myanmar, and the state’s ideologies are built around Buddhist and Bamar beliefs and traditions. Minority identities are assimilated into national identity. Religion also plays a major role in basic civil rights, such as the right to marry. Diversity and self-determination are oppressed in favour of peace, development, and prosperity. The state recognises only 2 genders defined by biological sex at birth.

 In the identity card from this future, religion, ethnicity, and gender are clearly stated. The gender is only binary, and religion is difficult to change on paper. The identity card also features design choices that represent the majority of Buddhist-Bamar people, such as Kanote (ကနုတ်) and the lily flower. Role in the family is also regarded as an important identity and featured on the identity card.

Marginal Change   

In this future scenario, the government and civil society organisations (CSOs) have made some efforts in reducing the burmanisation and ethnic supremacism. Some big ethnic groups gain more representation in the political and social sphere. The effort of some religious leaders paid off, and society sees harmony among the religions. The hatred and violence based on religious beliefs are rare to see. The economic development created a bigger middle class and reduced the gap in wealth distribution. With a bigger middle class, people are more educated, and some efforts are made to heal generational trauma caused by the history of violent clashes among identities.

In the identity card from this future, only name, father’s name, date of birth, and ID number are featured as proofs of identification. (Father’s name is a necessary feature in identifying a Myanmar citizen, as most of them do not have a last name.) Blood type is present on the card for emergency medical procedures. However, a digital chip is installed in the ID card. Authorised officials can scan the chip to access broader information regarding the person, such as ethnicity, religion, gender, criminal record, medical history, and so on. This makes some identities easily changeable on official records.

Progressive Change

In this future, the country is structured as a federalist union where self-determination and equality can be established to a certain degree. However, there may be some conflicts happening in some areas. Minority ethnic identities become stronger and are given more representation in politics. The discrimination based on identity in education, professions, immigration, and other areas has become minimal. The structural and systemic discrimination cease to exist on paper, and real-life implementation also shows progress.

In the identity card of this future, ethnicity and religion are no longer needed to be disclosed. Father’s name is replaced by Parent’s name. The parent can be a father, a mother, or a non-binary parent. Gender can also be non-binary genders and can be different from sex at birth. Moreover, it is easily changeable. Blood type and sex at birth are also disclosed for medical emergencies. There is a procedure for regular updates of information on the ID card at least every 10 years. This is a quick and easy procedure and can be done at a local office.

Radical Change

In this future, Myanmar and the whole world have become a well-digitalised society, and the concept of global citizenship is popular. The primary citizenship of a person is determined by the country where one’s employment contract is located, and people are loyal to the economy where they contribute. The place or country of birth is only of secondary importance. Religious or ethnic identities have lost their influence, and the identity based on profession and hobbies is becoming more important.

The proof of identity in this future no longer needs a physical card. It is done by scanning biometric data such as the retina or fingerprint. The identification data is stored as a public cryptographic key, and the owner is fully in control of what data is publicly disclosed. This biometric data can also be used for travel across the physical borders of countries.

Discussion

The findings and analysis of research data state that the people of Myanmar have a different vision for identities in the futures than it is in the present. They want unity, harmony, and equality among the identities that power peace and prosperity in the society. The state-sponsored discrimination based on identity needs to be eliminated from the system. Moreover, they want to embrace the fluid nature of some identities. Based on these future visions of identity, some recommendations for the future government or governments of Myanmar are developed.

 

Recommendations

In stating recommendations for this study, I would like to stay away from the political recommendations. There are political and structural changes that Myanmar needs to go through to obtain harmony among identities such as decentralising power sharing structure between federal and states to ensure self-determination for ethnic identities, changing the election system to proportional representation system or a mixed system to grant more representation to minority identities, and taking out military from political sphere and putting it under a civilian control. However, there are many scholarly sources that have discussed these recommendations in detail. Therefore, I would like to focus on more subtle recommendations that the future governments of Myanmar can comply with to solve the problems regarding identity in Myanmar.

1. Education

Before the military coup of 2021, Myanmar was going through an education reform in both primary and higher education. However, the coup d’état of February 2021 put a halt to this reform. Even with the reform, some issues in the education system, which were essential for the harmony and equality among identities, were neglected.

• Removing Burmanisation from the Curriculum

The primary education curriculum as of 2025 is heavily based on the majority Bamar culture, tradition, and history. The Bamar tradition and culture, such as festivals, beliefs, and etiquette, are taught as standard practices while omitting the culture and traditions of other major and minor ethnicities. The history taught in school only contains the stories of the Bamar kingdoms. The history of the country is divided into ages when the Bamar kingdom prospered. This narrative of the history purposefully neglects the existence and success of other major ethnic kingdoms that existed in modern-day Myanmar.

This Burmanised version of primary education creates a sense of superiority in young Bamar children, fuelling their belief in ethnic supremacism. It is one of the main factors that causes division and distrust among the ethnic identities in Myanmar.

The essence of Burmanisation must be removed from the curriculum to promote harmony among the ethnic identities. It can be done while developing a new curriculum and developing a system for updating the curriculum regularly. The narrative of the history of Myanmar, which includes the existence and success of various sovereign ethnic kingdoms, should be taught at school. Moreover, the culture and traditions of ethnicities other than Bamar should also be covered in the primary education.

• Reducing the Language Barrier

Burmese is the only language of instruction for all primary education levels and higher education classes, except for foreign language classes. Moreover, Burmese (မြန်မာစာ) and English are the compulsory language subjects for all primary education grades. This creates systemic barriers for students with a first language other than Burmese. The students from the areas and families where Burmese is rarely spoken in their home or communities need to master Burmese to access primary education and advance to higher grades.

Regional languages are used as the unofficial language of instruction in the classrooms of some ethnic areas, but it is less effective due to the lack of resources written in regional languages. Some ethnic languages are also added to the curriculum as optional language subjects in some areas, but the students cannot replace compulsory language subjects with them.

Developing curriculum and resources in other main languages, such as Tai (Shan), which is spoken by 10% of the population of Mon, and which is spoken by 7% of the population, could reduce language barriers for students with a different first language than Burmese.

Making regional language an elective subject, together with Burmese and English, can also reduce the difficulty of ethnic minority students in advancing to higher grades in the primary education. Giving the choice of languages in primary education can also increase the number of students from minority ethnic areas to reach higher education.

Moreover, a delegation of authority over curricula and systems to state and regional level education boards can reduce the language barrier for students. With the increase in authority over curricula, the regional education boards can implement measures to integrate regional languages into the curriculum and develop resources in regional languages.

Reducing the language barrier for students with first languages other than Burmese can make education more accessible in ethnic areas and reduce difficulties for these students to advance to a higher level of education. This is a way to eliminate systemic discrimination for minority identities.

• Promoting Equality with Education

Integrating lessons that promote equality and harmony among identities is also crucial. The curricula for primary education should include lessons about gender studies, religions, and ethnicities, which promote equality and harmony among them. This can seed the sense of equality and harmony among the society in the younger generation.  

2. Promoting Domestic Tourism

For a long time, domestic tourism within Myanmar has solely existed as religious pilgrimage to Buddhist pagodas and stupas. The habit of domestic tourism as a recreation only developed after the democratisation of the country in 2015. Domestic tourism should be promoted as a means to learn about the diverse cultures and traditions that exist within the country.

Promoting domestic tourism can give more interaction withing different identities residing in the country. With more interaction, the people of Myanmar will be able to understand different cultures, and they will be able to tolerate the differences more. This could enhance the unity and harmony among the people. Moreover, domestic tourism can also help in developing local communities.

The government should join forces with non-government organisations (NGOs) and CSOs in developing domestic tourism. It can be done by several ways including but not limited to 1) subsidizing local communities in creating domestic tourism hotspots where visitors can learn about cultures, traditions and religious practices; 2) sponsoring programmes which encourage citizens, especially youths, to visit other ethnic regions within Myanmar; and 3) sponsoring social media and mass media programmes which promote travelling and destinations of travel. The government should be aware to favour the local communities in developing domestic tourism to enable them to be competitive with big investors from the more developed part of the country.

2. Art for Harmony

Educating society through art and artistic expressions is one of the most effective ways. Art can be used to spread unity, trust, and harmony among the society of Myanmar.

The government and NGOs can support the creation of art and artistic expressions by developing platforms where people can showcase their creations to promote unity and mutual respect; sponsoring films, music and other art mediums which feature multicultural narratives and challenge identity-based discrimination; and allocating funds for local governments and local communities to create arts with regional languages.

3. Flexible and Inclusive Proof of Identification

Many citizens of Myanmar experience identity-based systemic discrimination while requesting proofs of identification, such as an identity card (မှတ်ပုံတင်) or a passport. The system in issuing these documents privileges Buddhist Bamar citizens while discriminating against citizens who follow other religions or are of different ethnic origin. The process creates both official and unofficial barriers for citizens of minority identities, requiring them to spend an under-the-table bribe. The identification system only accepts binary genders, excluding the existence of non-binary genders. Moreover, the system of identity cards also makes it nearly impossible to change the identity of a person, such as religion or gender, on official documents.

The system of issuing proofs of identity should be restructured to ensure transparency and equality among identities. The categorising of identity should also be inclusive, such as acknowledging non-binary genders. In addition, the system should also make it easy to change certain identities on official documents, acknowledging the fluid nature of identity.

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